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Feb 14, 2026
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LONG
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"There's obviously a huge boom in construction going on in data centers... but I don't have any sign... that the number of car plants in this country is increasing." While general manufacturing (factories) is in secular decline, the build-out of AI/Cloud infrastructure is the singular bright spot in US capital investment. This concentrates demand on construction machinery, power management, and HVAC specific to data centers. LONG. This is the only sub-sector of "manufacturing/construction" with actual momentum. Regulatory pauses on power consumption or AI capex spending cuts. |
Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump’s Manufacturing Comeback Real?...
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Feb 14, 2026
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SHORT
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"When you put a tariff on auto parts, you're actually hurting what we call the OEMs... Ford, I think, losing $900 million because of tariffs." Protectionist policies are backfiring on legacy US automakers. Instead of protecting them, tariffs on imported parts increase their Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), compressing margins while they are already struggling with the EV transition. SHORT/AVOID. Policy headwinds are directly attacking profitability. Government bailouts or subsidies offsetting tariff costs. |
Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump’s Manufacturing Comeback Real?...
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Feb 14, 2026
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LONG
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"I think the chips act was generally considered to be a success... we got a bunch of chips factories here and they're building more and more in Arizona." Unlike the auto industry, the semiconductor sector is effectively utilizing government subsidies ($50B Chips Act) to expand physical capacity. This validates the "onshoring" thesis specifically for silicon, but not for other goods. LONG. Government policy is effectively de-risking the capex for these specific companies. Execution delays in Arizona plants or labor shortages. |
Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump’s Manufacturing Comeback Real?...
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Feb 14, 2026
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LONG
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"I do believe AI is a potential gamechanger. I do believe we could get to... GDP growth because of productivity growth... It could be three. It could be three and a half percent." The speaker argues that labor force growth is flat, so the *only* way to achieve the promised economic growth is through a massive spike in productivity (efficiency). AI is the only tool capable of delivering this 13%+ efficiency gain needed to meet growth targets. LONG. AI is not just a tech trade; it is a macroeconomic necessity for US GDP growth. AI models plateauing or failing to deliver enterprise ROI. |
Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump’s Manufacturing Comeback Real?...
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Feb 14, 2026
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WATCH
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"BYD could sell... EVs here at I think conservatively at $10,000 less than a comparable US car... consumers would be amazed at how inexpensive and how good these cars are." BYD is fundamentally the superior manufacturer with a massive cost advantage. Currently, they are blocked by 100% tariffs. If trade wars escalate or conversely if tariffs are ever relaxed to fight inflation, BYD is positioned to dominate globally. WATCH. The company is fundamentally strong but politically blocked in the US. Permanent exclusion from Western markets via tariffs. |
Bloomberg Markets
Is Trump’s Manufacturing Comeback Real?...
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Feb 14, 2026
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SHORT
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Rattner notes that US manufacturing output is declining and automakers are taking "large charges" to modify/exit EV businesses due to the new administration's anti-EV stance. He explicitly mentions Ford losing $900 million due to tariffs on imported parts. The sector faces a double whammy: Tariffs on parts raise the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) for US OEMs, while policy whiplash regarding EVs destroys the ROI on capital previously deployed to comply with mandates. SHORT US legacy automakers as they face margin compression from tariffs and strategic confusion. Sudden reversal of tariff policies or unexpected subsidies for legacy auto. |
Bloomberg Markets
Wall Street Week | Rattner on Manufacturing, ...
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Feb 14, 2026
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LONG
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While general manufacturing is struggling, Rattner states there is "obviously a huge boom in construction going on in data centers." He also cites the CHIPS Act as a success with factories building in Arizona. Capital expenditure is decisively shifting from traditional industrial plants to digital infrastructure. Companies providing the physical infrastructure (power/cooling like Vertiv) and the chips (Semiconductors) are the sole beneficiaries of this "manufacturing" spend. LONG the picks and shovels of the data center buildout. Overbuild/capacity glut or energy supply constraints. |
Bloomberg Markets
Wall Street Week | Rattner on Manufacturing, ...
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